Sunday, October 24, 2010

REITs In Malaysia

REITs - Be a hassle-free "landlord"

Want to buy a physical retail lot to collect a steady stream of rental income but don't have enough money? You could try investing in real estate investment trust (REITs), which are formed by companies that purchase and manage real estate using funds pooled from shareholders. Dividend payouts can be generous and you get exposure to a diverse portfolio of commercial properties.

"Typically, M-REITs pay a yield of 8% to 11% per annum."

"The dividends I get from investing in REITs and the returns I get from investing my own property are the same, but 10% less for the REIT dividend because of tax. Assuming your yield from REITs is 7.5%. Once you take away the 10% withholding tax, which is 90% of 7.5%, you will still get 6.75%. That's a very good return."

"If you're looking at purely dividend returns, and let's say you're a new retiree who has RM100K from your EPF account, my answer is that only a REIT can give you a return in excess of 6% over a long period, and many give capital appreciation over time."

"Unlike Stocks, REITs usually state upfront that all or a high percentage of profits would be fully distributed in the form of dividends. Thus their main advantage over stocks is their predictable, dependable and frequent income distribution."

"M-REITs are deemed more defensive than certain bonds due to the nature of securities themselves. Bonds are really a debt instrument issued by the borrower company, whose level of risk or default and thus, return, is reflected by an independent rating agency. Bonds return are relatively low and static compared with REITs"

"If the assets are in a good location with well management, their capital value will increase over time. Even the buildings are old, the land value will increase. At some point, the cost of land may be higher than the value of property."

DOWNSIDES to REITS

1. M-REITS will be subjected to equity market risks. Their price movement are more vlatile, unlike actual properties, where value is determined by recent comparative transactions, and subject to 'willing buyer, willing seller'

2. Entry price levels are also factors, that can be used to minimize capital losses, which are a real threat in bearish market. As a proxy to property market, one can also buy REITs in the same manner as properties, such as when the prices of actual properties are low.

To end this, there is upsides & downsides about REITs investment. This can be optimized to more upsides if we could do some research and invest into REIT that will give best returns & appreciation. The returns of REITs have been around 7%, while FDs' have been around 4%.




REITs Picks
1. Axis REIT (RM2.12) - has an active pipeline of acquisitions and dispositions. This enables the REIT to have active yield management to lock in profits on capital appreciation, thereby enhancing overall yield in the long term.

2. CapitalMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT) - owing to its good record in Singapore. It has the ability to raise values and rentals, as well as to maintain the yields over a long period. The investor is almost guaranteed a return that is in tune with the value of their current assets. CapitaMalls Asia has successfully re-branded Mines Shopping Fair, which is one of the three properties injected into its REITs. The pedigree of the most successful REIT in Asia with strong competence, expertise and ability to capitalize on the holding company's inherent strength.

3. Sunway REIT (SunREIT) (RM0.99)- IPO price (RM0.90)(8 July 2010) the largest REIT in Malaysia, because it owns asset with proven track record. These assets are located in award-winning townships. Given that the properties are located in a planned township, SunREIT properties do not facebthe risk of crowding or immediate competition from similar properties being developed next door. SunREIT is the largest elephant in the room.

4. UOA REIT (RM1.49)- It's got a steady stream of projects that it can feed into REIT. It's run by creative people, who are also developer and the REIT manager.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Maybank Research (March 2010)

01/03 Sime Darby RM8.45 Hold TP9.20
01/03 Maxis RM5.52 Hold TP5.80
01/03 Genting RM6.31 Buy
01/03 Genting Malaysia RM2.72 Sell
01/03 RHB RM5.82 Buy TP6.40
01/03 Nestle RM33.90 Hold
01/03 IJM Corp RM4.43 Hold TP4.50
01/03 Lafarge RM6.30 Buy TP7.40
01/03 Air Asia RM1.44 Hold TP1.35
01/03 KNM RM0.805 Buy
01/03 KLCC Property RM3.27 Buy TP3.60
01/03 Bintulu Port Holdings RM6.30 Hold TP6.30
01/03 Media Prima RM1.83 TP2.08
01/03 Ann Joo Resources RM2.80 Hold TP2.60
01/03 Sunway City RM3.30 Buy TP4.80
01/03 Kinsteel RM0.995 Hold TP1.03
01/03 Alam Maritim Resources RM1.77 Buy TP2.40
01/03 Hock Seng Lee RM1.27 Buy TP1.75
01/03 Petra Perdana RM1.35 Hold TP1.45
01/03 CB Industrial Product Holding RM2.70 Buy TP4.40

02/03 WCT RM2.64 Buy TP3.40 top pick in construction
02/03 MISC RM7.80 Buy TP9.05

04/03 Berjaya Toto RM4.33 Sell

08/03 Kossan Rubber Industries RM7.38 Buy TP10.20

09/03 Maxis RM5.44 Buy TP6.20

10/03 Gamuda RM2.79 Buy TP3.80
10/03 Glomac RM1.29 Buy TP1.78

11/03 Gamuda RM2.79 Buy TP3.80
11/03 George Kent (Malaysia) RM0.93

12/03 Berjaya Sports Toto RM4.41 Sell
12/03 Tan Chong Motor Holdings RM3.31 Buy

15/03 AirAsia RM1.33 Sell TP1.15
15/03 Top Glove RM12.26 Buy TP14.50 (dividend payout 40% from net profits)

16/03 Berjaya Toto RM4.37 Sell
16/03 Tanjung Offshore 1.05 Buy
16/03 EON capital RM6.09 Hold

17/03 Tenaga Buy

18/03 Top Glove Corporation RM12.56 Buy TP14.50

19/03 SP Setia RM4,15 Hold TP4.00
19/03 EON Capital RM6.90 Hold TP7.20

22/03 KNM RM0.785 Hold TP0.75 (15-27% earnings cut for 2010-11) Bidding oarty's due diligence has a 22 March deadline (0.90/sh), eventually drawing experience from the kitchen sinking excersise in 4Q09, which largely mirrors Sime Draby-Ranunia's price revision of the fabrication yard sale deal.

23/03 Hock Seng Lee RM1.34 Buy TP1.75 (HSL)
24/03 Glomac RM1.28 Buy TP1.78 - still in land aquisition mode
25/03 Tanjung Plc RM17.74 Buy TP19.10 - Dividends & growth potential
25/03 Sapura Crest Petroleum RM2.36 - Regional growth ahead
25/03 Gamuda RM2.79 TP3.80 - Taking the lead on water consolidation RM10.75b
26/03 Gamuda RM2.84 Buy
26/03 Loh & Loh RM4.80 Buy TP6.00 - A major win (Hulu Terengganu hydroelectric project)
29/03 TM RM3.43 Buy TP3.86







Monday, February 22, 2010

25 Stocks for 2010


25 M'sian stocks that are expected to outperform the FBM KLCI

Standard & Poor’s recently issued a comprehensive report on Malaysia and the 25 top stocks it was looking to outperform the market in the Year of the Tiger. Below is an excerpt of that report.

We maintain FBM KLCI target at 1,400 points in 2010 for an 11% return, pricing the index at 16 times market consensus earnings for this year.

Based on valuation grounds and growth prospects, we are “overweight” on the banking and healthcare sectors in Malaysia. We are “underweight” on the telecoms sector.


1. Genting Bhd

We like Genting for its wide experience in the casino business, expanding footprint and financial strength.

It offers exposure to the integrated resort in Singapore, which will be a significant contributor to earnings over the medium term, while domestic casino operation will provide relatively stable earnings.

The management continues to seek casino opportunities elsewhere to expand its footprint further.

Valuations are not demanding at current level with the stock trading at a discount of about 20% to its sum-of-parts value.

11. CIMB Group

CIMB Group is our pick of the Malaysian banks for relative and absolute outperformance this year.

Our 2010 net profit forecast suggest earnings growth of 24.3%, which comfortably beats the average sector growth of 19.9%.

CIMB remains attractive for its established consumer banking business, strong investment banking franchise and dynamic management. It also has the most developed and best resolved regional banking strategy.



12. SP Setia Bhd

We like SP Setia for its good track record in generating sales even in difficult times, and its ability to enhance the value of its landbank through innovative products.

Its landed residential projects are strategically located in three major states in Malaysia – Penang, Johor and Selangor – as well as in Vietnam.

In addition, it will soon diversify and enlarge its earnings base to include commercial development with the launch of its mega RM6bil Kuala Lumpur EcoCity along Jalan Bangsar in October.

21. Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd (Masteel)

After a difficult 2009, we expect the local steel sector to benefit from increasing domestic project implementation this year and a rising average selling price.

Masteel remains one of the cheapest steel stocks, with an estimated 2010 PER below six times against peer average of 8.5 times.

24. Axiata Group

We like Axiata for its vast geographical reach in Asia’s fast-growing mobile markets and good earnings growth potential.

Its group-wide ongoing reform, which includes its cost-down initiatives and emphasis on profitability, are nicely panning out and should help support earnings growth, moving forward.

At the current price, the stock is trading at 2010 and 2011 PERs of 13.2 times and 12.2 times respectively. Valuations are attractive, in our opinion, particularly given Axiata’s growth potential and improved balance sheet.

25. Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB)

TNB’s earnings visibility has improved, with coal cost expected at US$85 a tonne in the financial year 2010 as 45% of requirements have been locked in at US$65-US$70 a tonne.

Meanwhile, electricity demand is recovering at a faster rate and is expected to exceed 3% year-on-year, driven by the pick-up in the industrial sector.

Foreign shareholding seems to have stabilised at 9.4% in November and December 2009 from the peak of 28.3% in April 2007.

Valuation is undemanding as compared to its peers and its historical trend.




Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Maybank Research Stock Picks

Equity Research (Stock Picks)
Large Cap
TENAGA 7.98 TP12.10
GAMUDA 2.77 TP3.80
KNM 0.74 TP1.02
F&N 11.00 TP13.25

Mid Cap
HSL 1.16 TP1.40
GLOMAC 1.35 TP1.78
SUNCITY 3.20 TP4.20
MEDIA PRIMA 1.76 TP2.24

JAN 2010
KINSTEL 1.10 TP8X
TANJUNG OFFSHORE 1.25 TP1.45
GENTING MALAYSIA 2.89 SELL
MEDIA PRIMA 1.86 BUY TP2.08
AIRASIA 1.42 HOLD TP1.35
KNM 0.80 BUY TP1.02
MAXIS 5.33 HOLD TP5.80
SAPURA CREST
PLUS 3.30 BUY TP4.20
GENTING MALAYSIA 6.96 BUY TP8.85
SUNRISE 2.21 BUY TP2.86

FEB 2010
Lafarge 6.30 BUY TP7.40
Petra Perdana RM1.42 Sell
EON Capital RM7.06 Hold
DIGI Com RM22.10 Sell
Bursa Malaysia RM7.71 Sell
EON Capital RM6.85 Hold
- HLB merger back on the table again?
KNM RM0.75 BUY
- An offer for the underlying business “Privatizing” at RM0.90/share.
Petra Perdana RM1.45 Hold
- A new Board, a new beginning
Star Publication RM3.28 Hold
AMMB holdings rm4.61 Buy
WCT RM2.62 Buy OSK buy TP3.30
Fraser & Neave Holdings RM10.56 Buy TP13.25
Mah Sing Group RM1.80 Buy TP2.56
Kinsteel Hold TP1.03 (downgrade) Steel Industry: Neutral
Ann Joo Hold TP2.60 (maintain)
Maybank RM6.70: Not Rated OSK Buy TP7.05 MIDF Neutral
F&N 10.50 Buy TP13.25
GAB RM6.60 Hold
Dialog Group RM1.34 Hold OSK buy TP1.52
11/02 IOI Corporation RM5.20 Sell TP4.70
11/02 RCE Capital RM0.675 Buy TP0.975
11/02 Notion VTEC RM2.79 Buy TP4.20 (up-scale 53%)
11/02 AmanahRaya REIT RM0.835 Buy TP1.14
11/02 IJM Corporation RM4.40 Hold
11/02 Air Asia RM1.38 Hold TP1.35
11/02 CB INdustrial Product Holding RM2.62 Buy TP4.40
12/02 Berjaya Toto RM4.27 Sell
12/02 BAT RM42.10 Hold TP43.00
12/02 Star Publications RM3.20 Hold TP3.37
12/02 MBM Resources 2.55 Buy TP3.20
17/02 LITRAK RM2.89 Buy TP3.55 potential 22% ipside DY5.5%
18/02 Mah Sing Group (MSGB) RM1.80 Buy TP2.56
19/02 Loh & Loh Corporation RM4.98 Buy TP5.35
19/02 DIGI RM22.48 Hold (from Sell) TP23.30
19/02 Petronas GAs RM9.78 Sell TP8.80
22/02 Genting Bhd RM6.36 Buy
22/02 Proton RM3.98 Buy
22/02 EON Capital RM6.90 Hold
23/02 TM RM3.35 Hold (from Buy)
23/02 Tan Chong Motor Holdings (TCM) RM3.05 Buy TP3.60
23/02 MSGB RM1.80 Buy TP2.60
23/02 QL Resources RM3.34 Buy TP3.68
23/02 TH Olantations RM1.49 Buy TP1.84
23/02 EPIC RM1.51 Buy TP1.95
24/03 CIMB RM12.66 Hold TP13.60
24/03 PLUS RM3.37 Buy with a decent net DPS5.6%
24/03 UMW RM6.18 Hold TP6.85
24/03 AEON RM4.98 Hold TP5.10
24/03 Wah Seong (WSC) RM2.32 Buy TP2.80 O&G
24/03 JTI RM5.09 Buy Tp5.60 (from 5.30)
24/03 Tanjung Offshore RM1.07 Buy TP1.45
25/03 MISC RM7.95 Buy TP9.05
25/03 Axiata RM3.50 Hold TP3.60
25/03 KLK RM16.68 Hold TP15.00
25/03 Genting Plantations RM6.18 Hold TP6.10
25/03 MAH RM4.95 Hold TP under review
25/03 WCT RM2.65 Buy TP3.40
25/03 KFC RM7.94 Hold TP under review
25/03 Carlsberg RM4.56 Hold TP4.60
25/03 Sunway Holdings RM1.40 Buy Tp2.10
25/03 Loh & Loh RM4.60 Buy TP5.80
25/03 Shell RM10.70 Ceasing Coverage







CIMB RESEARCH
AXIATA TP3.86
KENCANA 1.42 TP2.00

Friday, January 1, 2010

GAMUDA - Start of rising earnings trend

Start of rising earnings trend; new warrants to “reward” shareholders Earnings improved, warrants enticing. Gamuda’s 1QFY10 net profit was within our expectation as property sales and construction margins improved. A surprise 6sen interim DPS (+50% YoY) was declared, leading us to raise full-year DPS forecast to 12sen from 8sen. A new 1-for-8 5-year warrants to raise RM742m (maximum) is offered at just 10sen each (exercise price not fixed yet), which will provide longer term funding, particularly for its Vietnam property ventures. Buy.

1QFY10 results in line. 1Q’s healthy RM63m net profit (+14.5% YoY, +45.6% QoQ) was within our expectation (22% of our FY10 forecast), but appeared to be below the market’s, at 19% of full-year consensus earnings. Improved property sales of RM250m in 1Q10 (+210% YoY) and better construction margins aided YoY pretax profit growth, aside from continued sturdy contribution from its water concessions (see segmental breakdown for details). Net gearing improved significantly to just 0.09x (Jul 09: 0.12x), with net debt narrowing to RM278m (Jul 09: RM385m). Interim DPS of 6sen was higher than our 4sen projection.

Proposes 1-for-8 renounceable warrants. This involves a maximum 267.7m warrants which will be issued at 10sen each. The issuance will raise RM26.8m gross proceeds initially and up to RM714.8m over a 5-year period to fund Gamuda’s long-term plans, particularly its Vietnam property development projects. The warrants’ exercise price has yet to be determined, but an indicative is RM2.67 based on Gamuda’s last 5-day weighted average share price. We estimate a net 4% EPS dilution. At an issue price of just 10sen, the proposed warrants serve to entice shareholders to ride on the long-term upside potential of Gamuda.

Maintain Buy. We expect a more active rollout of major government infrastructure jobs in 2010. Prospects for Gamuda are improving on more manageable building material costs and a healthier property demand outlook. The group continues to vie for Middle East projects in Qatar, Bahrain and Oman worth a total RM4b. We retain our forecasts, expecting an improving QoQ earnings trend. Our forecasts imply a strong 45% rebound in FY10 profits. Our RNAV-based TP is RM3.80.

Gamuda & WCT - Top picks for Constructions Sector

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research sees the downside as fairly limited for WCT and Gamuda following the fallout from the developments in Vietnam and Dubai last week, though WCT is involved in Abu Dhabi only.

The research house said although the developments there were negative surprises, their implications for WCT and Gamuda were unlikely to be substantial.

CIMB Research said for Gamuda, the devaluation of the Vietnamese currency, the dong, "has both a cost savings impact and a small reversal of profits for infrastructure works at Yenso Park". It added the potential negative impact on property demand was likely to subside over time.

As for WCT, its exposure to the dong relates only to expenses of about RM1 million for its US$700 million Platinum Plaza project in Ho Chih Minh City.

"The good news is that both companies do not have exposure to Dubai. We maintain our forecasts and Outperform calls on WCT and Gamuda which are also our top picks for the sector," it said.

The research house said potential re-rating catalysts include subsiding fears over Vietnam and the Middle East, new contract wins, and progress of mega jobs. It also maintained its overweight on the CONSTRUCTION [] sector.

Written by Joseph Chin
Monday, 30 November 2009 13:44

Gamuda shares hit by uncertain outlook


PETALING JAYA: Shares of Gamuda Bhd hit a six-month low yesterday as investors cast a wary eye on the group’s prospects despite an improved performance in the first quarter ended Oct 31 and its rosy outlook for the construction sector in 2010. The lack of big projects secured by Gamuda since the start of its fiscal year ending July 31, 2010 (FY10) remained a key concern, analysts said.

The counter fell as much as 3% yesterday, but recovered somewhat to close at RM2.61 – down 5 sen, or 1.9%, for the day.

On Tuesday, Gamuda announced it made a net profit of RM63mil for the three months ended Oct 31, up 14.5% from the RM49mil recorded in the same quarter last year.

Revenue was up 1.6% at RM624mil.

The company also announced a surprise 50% jump in interim dividend payout to 6 sen per share, which prompted analysts to upgrade Gamuda’s full-year dividend forecast to 12 sen per share.

At the current market price, the stock’s potential dividend yield stood at 4.6%.

“I don’t think people see Gamuda as a high dividend-paying stock, but the increased cash payout will probably limit the stock’s downside risk, going forward,’’ a fund manager with a local asset management firm said.

Despite the improved year-on-year results, Gamuda’s net profit in its first three months made up 18% of Kenanga Research FY10 target of RM340mil and consensus estimates of RM337mil for the company.

Kenanga remains “neutral” on Gamuda, and has kept its FY10 and FY11 profit predictions intact based on Gamuda’s strong unbilled property book and better operating margins ahead.

But RHB Research Institute believes the consensus estimates are too high.

“The full-year consensus number can only be achieved if there are sharp increases in construction margins over the remaining quarters,’’ it said yesterday.

Gamuda’s construction pre-tax margin was 2.6% in the first quarter, which was far below the market’s projection of 6% for FY10.

RHB Research also believes that the market has “under appreciated” the possibility of delays in project implementation and sub-par margins due to stiff competition.

Other negative developments affecting Gamuda and many local construction players include reduced gross development expenditure in 2010 by the Government, Vietnam’s currency devaluation and the Dubai credit crisis.

RHB Research reckons that Gamuda’s current “rich valuations” have priced in the group’s earnings from its RM7.5bil outstanding construction orderbook.

At a briefing for analysts on Tuesday, Gamuda said it expected new contract awards to gather pace in the first half of next year.

Gamuda is vying for projects under the planned RM7bil Light Rapid Transport extension programme and the runway portion of the new low-cost carrier terminal at KL International Airport complex.

Gamuda also told analysts that it has emerged as the top two finalists for the Ulu Terengganu Dam project, and is currently bidding for RM4bil worth of jobs in Qatar, Oman and Bahrain.

On the property side, Gamuda is sticking to its planned May 2010 launching date for its residential units at Yenso Park in Vietnam.

On the local front, the company is reviewing its FY10 RM600mil sales target after a strong first quarter.

Meanwhile, Gamuda plans to sell as many as 268 million new warrants at 10 sen each on the basis of one warrant for every eight shares held.

Assuming a full conversion at a strike price of RM2.67, the exercise will raise RM715mil in fresh capital, but may dilute its earnings by about 5%.

sources from star newspaper dated 24 Dec.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Green Packet's 3Q net loss widens to RM31.9m

KUALA LUMPUR: GREEN PACKET BHD []'s net loss widened further to RM31.85 million in its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2009 from RM10.29 million a year earlier, despite surging revenue, due partly to a continued heavy promotional activities and subscriber acquisition costs.

The WiMAX and broadband solutions provider said higher amortisation and depreciation costs for further expansion of the business also contributed to the widening losses. Revenue surged nearly 250% to RM63.04 million from RM18.17 million.

For the nine months to Sept 30, 2009, net loss widened to RM81.94 million from RM17.91 million a year earlier, while revenue rose 156% to RM160.99 million from RM62.96 million.

Green Packet said today its board viewed "2009 and 2010 as important investment years to prepare, position and expand the group's operations".

It said the ongoing investments in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand was to establish a physical presence for long term growth in the provision of affordable fixed and wireless broadband and voices services.

"In view of these planned investments, the board of directors expects the performance of the group to remain as planned for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2009 with improved prospects for FY10," the company said.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Green Packet unaware of unusual market activity

KUALA LUMPUR: GREEN PACKET BHD [and REDTONE INTERNATIONAL BHD [, both of which were queried by Bursa Malaysia Securities over unusual market activity on Friday, Nov 6, replied they were unaware of any reasons for the activity.

Green Packet said the only announcements made were in October about its Packet One WiMAX operations securing approval to launch services in East Malaysia and that it had secured the go-ahead to operate in Singapore.

RedTone said, after making inquiries, to the best of its knowledge, it was not aware of any reasons that might have contributed to the unusual market activity.

SCOMI Research

SCOMI price was going down as many other counter are on the up trend because of investor believe market recovery is coming soon. You also can noticed that many shareholder disposed their share in big quantity and no buying from any financial institute.

The internet forum research conclusion is this is the political share and it future move will solely depend s on the politic move as well.

source from The Edge 6 Nov
Scomi Group Bhd's net profit rose 19% rise in net profit to RM22.98 million in its third quarter (3Q) from RM19.33 million a year earlier mainly due to the contribution from the energy and logistics engineering division.

One year history chart
8 months resistant = RM0.57
TP: RM1.00




MRCP 1651

MRCB has proposed a renounceable rights issue to raise up to RM566 million. The rights shares could be issued at RM1.172 each, a discount of about 9.8% to the theoretical ex-rights price of MRCB shares of RM1.30,based on the three-month weighted average market price of about RM1.36.

The basis for the proposed rights issue is one rights share for every two existing MRCB shares held at the entitlement date.

MBSB's net profit for the third quarter (3Q) ended Sept 30, 2009 jumped 565% to RM52.68 million from RM7.92 million a year ago due to higher net interest income, the recovery of a major account and lower allowance for loans and financing losses. source from The EDge 6 Nov 09

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

ICAP at Discounted Price



ICAPITAL.BIZ Bhd. (Stock Code: 5108 ICAP) is listed in the KLSE on Oct 2005 as a company under the Closed End Fund section.

Closed Ended Fund vs Unit Trust Fund
A closed-end fund has a fixed amount of units. For instance, ICAP has a fixed 140 million units available. It will still be capped at 140 million units no matter how many people sell or buy it. In this case, the buy and sell price do not depend on the NAV but actually depends on supply and demand.

An open-ended fund doesn’t have a fixed amount of units. It can be 13 million units today and down to 10 million units the next day, depending on how many people have bought or sold the funds. The price that you buy or sell an open-ended fund is based on the NAV of the fund, which is calculated daily by the fund companies.

For instance, when you buy a Public Mutual fund, you are buying from Public Mutual directly at the NAV + entry fee (6.5%). If you sell, you are selling to Public Mutual directly at the NAV + entry fee (6.5%). But you don’t need to worry whether there are buyers or sellers available, Public Mutual will always buy or sell to you.

Since ICAP is also a fund, it also has its own NAV. But instead of being calculated and published daily like other mutual funds. ICAP NAV is calculated on every Wednesday and will be published end of Thursday on icapital.biz and klse.com.my.


Why We Need to Know the NAV
Logically, ICAP should be bought or sold around the NAV. So if the NAV is RM1.80, buy and sell should be around that amount. As a buyer, you want to buy it as low as possible. If the NAV is RM1.80 and you pay RM2.00 to buy it, you are actually paying a premium to buy it. It is OK to pay a premium to buy a good fund. When you buy a mutual fund, you need to pay 6% to 7% entry fee as well which is also a premium. However, this stock is trading below its NAV today which I find it is a good time to get it at this discounted price. No speculation for this stock, it is just the matter or worth it or not.

Even though this ICAP is not subjected to high entry fees but it is still has annual fund management fee of 1.5% to the NAV. Anyway, all mutual funds in Malaysia charge an annual management fee and 1.5% is the most commonly used. The fee is paid quarterly at 0.375% each (1.5% / 4) based on the NAV.

Another concerns is ICAP is taxed at the statutory tax rate of 27%. Compare with other types of funds. In long term, ICAP’s performance will be affected by taxation compared with other funds which have tax advantages.

What makes ICAP so interesting vs other mutual funds in Malaysia?

As ICAP has low diversification about 15 stocks, its performance will not rely too much on what the overall market is doing. Whereas an mutual fund that holds too many stocks will not be able to outperform the market in a large margin in the long run. But an intelligently value investing portfolio that focus only on a few well researched stocks can easily outperform the market by a large margin in the long run.

On to of that ICAP has a good proven performace record and also the infamous fund manager Mr Tan Teng Boo who is also the founder and managing director of Capital Dynamics Sdn Bhd. Capital Dynamics is the fund manager of ICAP.

Endorced / modified the article from ahyap.com

Comments:
This is one of my favorite counter but this solely for long-term or mid-term investment just like you buying the mutual funds.


Greed caused Confusion



"This counter has gone up way too fast, too high. I'm feeling quite uncomfortable.
I feel greed on one hand, i feel confused on the other.
I'm totally is in the dark right now on what to do!!!"

I got this message from Lowyat forum, someone is holding 150 lots Gpacket ABP RM0.68 with 50 lots Gpacket-WA RM0.25. The mother share and warrant price shot up to RM1.26 and RM0.945 respectively in the past two weeks. The profit would be RM87K from mother share and RM35K from warrants with total profit RM122K.

I can understand the feeling because I also having this share at ABP RM0.74 and I have sold off half of it so far. The feeling that I'm struggling with maybe in lower extent but it is still significant and affecting you to think properly to make a right decision.

For instance, I didn't subscribe the warrant offers and sold it at RM0.25 but now it has shot up to RM0.945. In this case, I didn't make any lost but profited RM0.25 per share for free. But mentally you somehow still feel disturbed because you thought that you have lost RM0.7 by not taking the warrant offers.

So now what would you do with the share that you still holding? For sure, you don't want to make a same mistake to sell it too early this time on the other hand you get a bit uncomfortable with the high speculation price. But it seems will continue to go up to higher price.

Follow up:
05 Nov - GPACKET RM1.49. I decided to hold till it drop again because at this point already 100% profit. I just want to be part of this roller coaster ride to understand more about investment physcology emotions. Now I'm feeling like flying to heaven and money keep coming in.

Axiata RM2.93 - Neutral


CIMB Research has maintained its neutral call on Axiata Group Bhd but raised its target price for Axiata’s shares to RM3.57 from RM3.47 on the back of a strong third-quarter (3Q) performance of its 84%-owned Indonesian unit Excelcomindo (XL).

Meanwhile, HwangDBS Vickers Research agreed on the possible 5% upside to Axiata’s net profit from XL’s boosted performance. However, it maintained its fully valued call on the telco giant with a target price of RM2.70 as it expressed concern that its share prices had run ahead of fundamentals.

Overall, Axiata’s total equity is valued at RM30 billion, with a PE of 16.6 times based on FY09 and 14 times based on FY10. Axiata ended flat at RM2.93 yesterday.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 3, 2009.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

PTPTN 1% Administrative Cost


The Star - 16 June 2009

PTPTN to charge 3% till syariah system is in place

The service charge reduction from 3% to 1% for those who borrowed from the National Higher Education Fund Corporation (PTPTN) will take effect simultaneously with the offering of the Ujrah (syariah-compliant financing product).

The offer to eligible borrowers would be done in phases after the process of data migration, which is currently being done from the existing system to the new integrated financing system, is completed, said National Higher Education Fund Corporation chief executive officer Noora Md Yusoff.

“The existing administrative cost of 3% will remain until the completion of the Ujrah financing agreement between the borrowers and PTPTN,” she said in a statement yesterday. Noora was replying to a comment made by “Regular Payor” via SMS which was published in The Star recently which alleged that the PTPTN failed to implement the reduction of the service charge from 3% to 1% that was supposed to begin from June last year. Any overpayment prior to the implementation would be adjusted accordingly, Noora said. source: The Star


COMMENTS:
Administrative cost reduction from 3% to 1% effective on June 2008 has been announced more than 1 year in many mainstream newspaper. Unfortunately, there is still no adjustment until today and PTPTN has poor follow up on updating the borrowers about this matter. A long silent from them has created a lot of unnecessary confusion, anger, disappointment, waiting, restless emotions among the borrowers.

I personally think PTPTN should update borrowers consistently on this matter in their own portal because some people don't read newspaper or every page of newspaper everyday. By having an update on website will solve most of the issues.

PTPTN online Statement - http://epay.ptptn.gov.my/loan/ptptnlogin.jsp
PTPTN Loan Calculator - http://www.ptptn.gov.my/web/guest/loan_calc

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Current BLR 2009

Base Lending Rate (BLR) is a minimum interest rate calculated by financial institutions based on a formula which takes into account the institutions' cost of funds and other administrative costs.

CIMB's Current BLR = 5.55%
The first time CIMB cut their BLR from 6.5% to 5.95% happened in 3 Feb 2009. Then another revised downwards from 5.95% to 5.55% effective from 02 March2009.

Other Banking Institutions BLR ..........

No. Banking Institution Effective Fr. BLR (% p.a.)
1 Affin Bank Berhad 02/03/2009 5.50
2 Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
3 AmBank (M) Berhad 10/03/2009 5.55
4 Bangkok Bank Berhad 06/03/2009 5.55
5 Bank of America Malaysia Berhad 01/03/2009 5.55
6 Bank of China (Malaysia) Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
7 Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (Malaysia) 06/03/2009 5.25
8 CIMB Bank Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
9 Citibank Berhad 10/03/2009 5.60
10 Deutsche Bank (Malaysia) Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
11 EON Bank Berhad 10/03/2009 5.55
12 Hong Leong Bank Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
13 HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
14 J.P. Morgan Chase Bank Berhad 03/03/2009 5.25
15 Malayan Banking Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
16 OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Berhad 01/03/2009 5.55
17 Public Bank Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
18 RHB Bank Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
19 Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
20 The Bank of Nova Scotia Berhad 05/03/2009 5.55
21 The Royal Bank of Scotland Berhad 27/02/2009 5.25
22 United Overseas Bank (Malaysia) Berhad 06/03/2009 5.55
Source : Bank Negara Malaysia
updated: 06 / 03 / 2009

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Budget 2010 highlights - Personal Concerns


Income Tax:


* Govt to reduce maximum individual income tax rate from 27% to 26%, personal relief increase from RM8,000 to RM9,000 in 2010

* Personal tax relief raised to RM7,000 from RM6,000 now for EPF contribution and life insurance premiums.

* Govt proposes individual taxpayers be given tax relief on broadband subscription fee up to RM500 a year from 2010 to 2012.

* Govt to impose 5% tax imposed on gains from disposal of real property from Jan 1, 2010. However,it will be retained for gifts between parent and child, husband and wife, grandparent and grandchild. This tax exemption will also be given on disposal of residential property once in a lifetime


Others:

* Govt to launch scheme for EPF contributors to use current, future savings in account 2 to get higher financing to buy higher value house or additional houses.

* Govt to issue 1Malaysia sukuk totaling RM3b, for Malaysian aged 21 and above. 3yr maturity, with 5% annual rate of return

* Govt proposes RM50 service tax on each principal credit card, charge cards, including free cards. RM25 for supplementary cards by January.

How to Measure Company's Effectiveness with ROE?

Return on Equity (ROE) is a tool that helps you to measure how effectively the company is being managed. In other words, ROE measures the company's ability to make use of its assets to generate profits.

ROE = (Net Profits - Dividends / Total Shareholder's Fund) x 100%

In general, the higher the ROE, the more effective the company is at using its resources and the more productive the management team.

TIPS:
Some people consider ROE one of the most important measures of a company's overall financial performance. Simply because you only want to invest your hard earn money in a company that will take good care of your money to maximize the profits.

A company that has a strong management should have a minimum of 10 on its ROE for a period of 5 years. The goal is to look for companies with a rising ROE, greater than 15% and growing. This is one of the Warren Buffett requirement as well.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

KNM - BUY





In the latest Maybank Equity Research dated 23 Oct 2009 has upgraded KNM group from SELL to BUY from previous target price RM0.69 to RM1.02.

Reasons are: (source from Maybank Equity Research)
1. Replenishment risk abating.
KNM's oustanding order book has stabilised at RM2.7b as at Sep 09. Also new job flows have started to pick up.

2. Job enquiries also on the rise.
To-date, 50% of KNM’s RM14b in tenders have been activated versus 10-15% 6 months ago.With job enquiries growing, we expect higher contract flows in 2010. New order wins will come from Malaysia and overseas (i.e. Middle East, Australia, PNG). We think KNM stands a strong chance of winning another RM400-500m contract from Verwater alone for Phase 2 of the storage terminal and marine facilities project in Yan, Kedah.
3. Exiting Chad to be positive.
Elsewhere, KNM’s intended venture into Chad is likely to be off unless it secures bank financing for the Sedigi project. The market would react positively should KNM drop its interest in Chad as a turnkey contractor or just surface as a sub-contractor for this project considering the security, execution and financial risks involved.
4. Expect earlier recovery, by 2010.
Forecast for 2010-11 will raise by 16% and 28% respectively as we expect full order book revival by 2H10. This suggests earnings growth revival from 2010, ahead of our initial expectations.


Tips:
Top 10 high volume stock with high fluctuation and speculation. This counter will be able give you an excitement everyday like riding a roller coaster. The current KNM's price is RM0.85 and if the TP is being realized then its going to be 23% profit. The lowest it can be speculated maybe at RM0.70, a very strong support level. So again....which way are you speculating? I voted up! I bought it in when it down to the support level and even now I still believe KNM still strong fundamentally with its businesses and growth.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Want to Know How Much A Company Made? Look at EPS!

Earning per Share(EPS) is to determine how much money the company makes.

It measures the shareholder returns for every shares invested. This is the most basic indicator because no matter how good you think a corporation is or how much you love its CEO, if the company is not earning money, eventually its stock price will fall.

EPS = Net Profit - Preference Dividens / No. of Ordinary Shares

Exp: Company A has $100,000 profits for the year with 1 million of outstanding shares. The EPS would be $0.10 (100,000/1,000,000).

TIPS:
If a company is earning more money, it obviously should be rewarded with a higher stock price or higher dividend payout (depending on its policies). That's why it's important to look at the history and forecast of company's EPS. Companies that grow (EPS) by more than 15% is the picked.