Friday, November 13, 2009

Green Packet's 3Q net loss widens to RM31.9m

KUALA LUMPUR: GREEN PACKET BHD []'s net loss widened further to RM31.85 million in its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2009 from RM10.29 million a year earlier, despite surging revenue, due partly to a continued heavy promotional activities and subscriber acquisition costs.

The WiMAX and broadband solutions provider said higher amortisation and depreciation costs for further expansion of the business also contributed to the widening losses. Revenue surged nearly 250% to RM63.04 million from RM18.17 million.

For the nine months to Sept 30, 2009, net loss widened to RM81.94 million from RM17.91 million a year earlier, while revenue rose 156% to RM160.99 million from RM62.96 million.

Green Packet said today its board viewed "2009 and 2010 as important investment years to prepare, position and expand the group's operations".

It said the ongoing investments in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand was to establish a physical presence for long term growth in the provision of affordable fixed and wireless broadband and voices services.

"In view of these planned investments, the board of directors expects the performance of the group to remain as planned for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2009 with improved prospects for FY10," the company said.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Green Packet unaware of unusual market activity

KUALA LUMPUR: GREEN PACKET BHD [and REDTONE INTERNATIONAL BHD [, both of which were queried by Bursa Malaysia Securities over unusual market activity on Friday, Nov 6, replied they were unaware of any reasons for the activity.

Green Packet said the only announcements made were in October about its Packet One WiMAX operations securing approval to launch services in East Malaysia and that it had secured the go-ahead to operate in Singapore.

RedTone said, after making inquiries, to the best of its knowledge, it was not aware of any reasons that might have contributed to the unusual market activity.

SCOMI Research

SCOMI price was going down as many other counter are on the up trend because of investor believe market recovery is coming soon. You also can noticed that many shareholder disposed their share in big quantity and no buying from any financial institute.

The internet forum research conclusion is this is the political share and it future move will solely depend s on the politic move as well.

source from The Edge 6 Nov
Scomi Group Bhd's net profit rose 19% rise in net profit to RM22.98 million in its third quarter (3Q) from RM19.33 million a year earlier mainly due to the contribution from the energy and logistics engineering division.

One year history chart
8 months resistant = RM0.57
TP: RM1.00




MRCP 1651

MRCB has proposed a renounceable rights issue to raise up to RM566 million. The rights shares could be issued at RM1.172 each, a discount of about 9.8% to the theoretical ex-rights price of MRCB shares of RM1.30,based on the three-month weighted average market price of about RM1.36.

The basis for the proposed rights issue is one rights share for every two existing MRCB shares held at the entitlement date.

MBSB's net profit for the third quarter (3Q) ended Sept 30, 2009 jumped 565% to RM52.68 million from RM7.92 million a year ago due to higher net interest income, the recovery of a major account and lower allowance for loans and financing losses. source from The EDge 6 Nov 09

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

ICAP at Discounted Price



ICAPITAL.BIZ Bhd. (Stock Code: 5108 ICAP) is listed in the KLSE on Oct 2005 as a company under the Closed End Fund section.

Closed Ended Fund vs Unit Trust Fund
A closed-end fund has a fixed amount of units. For instance, ICAP has a fixed 140 million units available. It will still be capped at 140 million units no matter how many people sell or buy it. In this case, the buy and sell price do not depend on the NAV but actually depends on supply and demand.

An open-ended fund doesn’t have a fixed amount of units. It can be 13 million units today and down to 10 million units the next day, depending on how many people have bought or sold the funds. The price that you buy or sell an open-ended fund is based on the NAV of the fund, which is calculated daily by the fund companies.

For instance, when you buy a Public Mutual fund, you are buying from Public Mutual directly at the NAV + entry fee (6.5%). If you sell, you are selling to Public Mutual directly at the NAV + entry fee (6.5%). But you don’t need to worry whether there are buyers or sellers available, Public Mutual will always buy or sell to you.

Since ICAP is also a fund, it also has its own NAV. But instead of being calculated and published daily like other mutual funds. ICAP NAV is calculated on every Wednesday and will be published end of Thursday on icapital.biz and klse.com.my.


Why We Need to Know the NAV
Logically, ICAP should be bought or sold around the NAV. So if the NAV is RM1.80, buy and sell should be around that amount. As a buyer, you want to buy it as low as possible. If the NAV is RM1.80 and you pay RM2.00 to buy it, you are actually paying a premium to buy it. It is OK to pay a premium to buy a good fund. When you buy a mutual fund, you need to pay 6% to 7% entry fee as well which is also a premium. However, this stock is trading below its NAV today which I find it is a good time to get it at this discounted price. No speculation for this stock, it is just the matter or worth it or not.

Even though this ICAP is not subjected to high entry fees but it is still has annual fund management fee of 1.5% to the NAV. Anyway, all mutual funds in Malaysia charge an annual management fee and 1.5% is the most commonly used. The fee is paid quarterly at 0.375% each (1.5% / 4) based on the NAV.

Another concerns is ICAP is taxed at the statutory tax rate of 27%. Compare with other types of funds. In long term, ICAP’s performance will be affected by taxation compared with other funds which have tax advantages.

What makes ICAP so interesting vs other mutual funds in Malaysia?

As ICAP has low diversification about 15 stocks, its performance will not rely too much on what the overall market is doing. Whereas an mutual fund that holds too many stocks will not be able to outperform the market in a large margin in the long run. But an intelligently value investing portfolio that focus only on a few well researched stocks can easily outperform the market by a large margin in the long run.

On to of that ICAP has a good proven performace record and also the infamous fund manager Mr Tan Teng Boo who is also the founder and managing director of Capital Dynamics Sdn Bhd. Capital Dynamics is the fund manager of ICAP.

Endorced / modified the article from ahyap.com

Comments:
This is one of my favorite counter but this solely for long-term or mid-term investment just like you buying the mutual funds.


Greed caused Confusion



"This counter has gone up way too fast, too high. I'm feeling quite uncomfortable.
I feel greed on one hand, i feel confused on the other.
I'm totally is in the dark right now on what to do!!!"

I got this message from Lowyat forum, someone is holding 150 lots Gpacket ABP RM0.68 with 50 lots Gpacket-WA RM0.25. The mother share and warrant price shot up to RM1.26 and RM0.945 respectively in the past two weeks. The profit would be RM87K from mother share and RM35K from warrants with total profit RM122K.

I can understand the feeling because I also having this share at ABP RM0.74 and I have sold off half of it so far. The feeling that I'm struggling with maybe in lower extent but it is still significant and affecting you to think properly to make a right decision.

For instance, I didn't subscribe the warrant offers and sold it at RM0.25 but now it has shot up to RM0.945. In this case, I didn't make any lost but profited RM0.25 per share for free. But mentally you somehow still feel disturbed because you thought that you have lost RM0.7 by not taking the warrant offers.

So now what would you do with the share that you still holding? For sure, you don't want to make a same mistake to sell it too early this time on the other hand you get a bit uncomfortable with the high speculation price. But it seems will continue to go up to higher price.

Follow up:
05 Nov - GPACKET RM1.49. I decided to hold till it drop again because at this point already 100% profit. I just want to be part of this roller coaster ride to understand more about investment physcology emotions. Now I'm feeling like flying to heaven and money keep coming in.

Axiata RM2.93 - Neutral


CIMB Research has maintained its neutral call on Axiata Group Bhd but raised its target price for Axiata’s shares to RM3.57 from RM3.47 on the back of a strong third-quarter (3Q) performance of its 84%-owned Indonesian unit Excelcomindo (XL).

Meanwhile, HwangDBS Vickers Research agreed on the possible 5% upside to Axiata’s net profit from XL’s boosted performance. However, it maintained its fully valued call on the telco giant with a target price of RM2.70 as it expressed concern that its share prices had run ahead of fundamentals.

Overall, Axiata’s total equity is valued at RM30 billion, with a PE of 16.6 times based on FY09 and 14 times based on FY10. Axiata ended flat at RM2.93 yesterday.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 3, 2009.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

PTPTN 1% Administrative Cost


The Star - 16 June 2009

PTPTN to charge 3% till syariah system is in place

The service charge reduction from 3% to 1% for those who borrowed from the National Higher Education Fund Corporation (PTPTN) will take effect simultaneously with the offering of the Ujrah (syariah-compliant financing product).

The offer to eligible borrowers would be done in phases after the process of data migration, which is currently being done from the existing system to the new integrated financing system, is completed, said National Higher Education Fund Corporation chief executive officer Noora Md Yusoff.

“The existing administrative cost of 3% will remain until the completion of the Ujrah financing agreement between the borrowers and PTPTN,” she said in a statement yesterday. Noora was replying to a comment made by “Regular Payor” via SMS which was published in The Star recently which alleged that the PTPTN failed to implement the reduction of the service charge from 3% to 1% that was supposed to begin from June last year. Any overpayment prior to the implementation would be adjusted accordingly, Noora said. source: The Star


COMMENTS:
Administrative cost reduction from 3% to 1% effective on June 2008 has been announced more than 1 year in many mainstream newspaper. Unfortunately, there is still no adjustment until today and PTPTN has poor follow up on updating the borrowers about this matter. A long silent from them has created a lot of unnecessary confusion, anger, disappointment, waiting, restless emotions among the borrowers.

I personally think PTPTN should update borrowers consistently on this matter in their own portal because some people don't read newspaper or every page of newspaper everyday. By having an update on website will solve most of the issues.

PTPTN online Statement - http://epay.ptptn.gov.my/loan/ptptnlogin.jsp
PTPTN Loan Calculator - http://www.ptptn.gov.my/web/guest/loan_calc

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Current BLR 2009

Base Lending Rate (BLR) is a minimum interest rate calculated by financial institutions based on a formula which takes into account the institutions' cost of funds and other administrative costs.

CIMB's Current BLR = 5.55%
The first time CIMB cut their BLR from 6.5% to 5.95% happened in 3 Feb 2009. Then another revised downwards from 5.95% to 5.55% effective from 02 March2009.

Other Banking Institutions BLR ..........

No. Banking Institution Effective Fr. BLR (% p.a.)
1 Affin Bank Berhad 02/03/2009 5.50
2 Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
3 AmBank (M) Berhad 10/03/2009 5.55
4 Bangkok Bank Berhad 06/03/2009 5.55
5 Bank of America Malaysia Berhad 01/03/2009 5.55
6 Bank of China (Malaysia) Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
7 Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (Malaysia) 06/03/2009 5.25
8 CIMB Bank Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
9 Citibank Berhad 10/03/2009 5.60
10 Deutsche Bank (Malaysia) Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
11 EON Bank Berhad 10/03/2009 5.55
12 Hong Leong Bank Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
13 HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
14 J.P. Morgan Chase Bank Berhad 03/03/2009 5.25
15 Malayan Banking Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
16 OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Berhad 01/03/2009 5.55
17 Public Bank Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
18 RHB Bank Berhad 02/03/2009 5.55
19 Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Berhad 03/03/2009 5.55
20 The Bank of Nova Scotia Berhad 05/03/2009 5.55
21 The Royal Bank of Scotland Berhad 27/02/2009 5.25
22 United Overseas Bank (Malaysia) Berhad 06/03/2009 5.55
Source : Bank Negara Malaysia
updated: 06 / 03 / 2009

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Budget 2010 highlights - Personal Concerns


Income Tax:


* Govt to reduce maximum individual income tax rate from 27% to 26%, personal relief increase from RM8,000 to RM9,000 in 2010

* Personal tax relief raised to RM7,000 from RM6,000 now for EPF contribution and life insurance premiums.

* Govt proposes individual taxpayers be given tax relief on broadband subscription fee up to RM500 a year from 2010 to 2012.

* Govt to impose 5% tax imposed on gains from disposal of real property from Jan 1, 2010. However,it will be retained for gifts between parent and child, husband and wife, grandparent and grandchild. This tax exemption will also be given on disposal of residential property once in a lifetime


Others:

* Govt to launch scheme for EPF contributors to use current, future savings in account 2 to get higher financing to buy higher value house or additional houses.

* Govt to issue 1Malaysia sukuk totaling RM3b, for Malaysian aged 21 and above. 3yr maturity, with 5% annual rate of return

* Govt proposes RM50 service tax on each principal credit card, charge cards, including free cards. RM25 for supplementary cards by January.

How to Measure Company's Effectiveness with ROE?

Return on Equity (ROE) is a tool that helps you to measure how effectively the company is being managed. In other words, ROE measures the company's ability to make use of its assets to generate profits.

ROE = (Net Profits - Dividends / Total Shareholder's Fund) x 100%

In general, the higher the ROE, the more effective the company is at using its resources and the more productive the management team.

TIPS:
Some people consider ROE one of the most important measures of a company's overall financial performance. Simply because you only want to invest your hard earn money in a company that will take good care of your money to maximize the profits.

A company that has a strong management should have a minimum of 10 on its ROE for a period of 5 years. The goal is to look for companies with a rising ROE, greater than 15% and growing. This is one of the Warren Buffett requirement as well.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

KNM - BUY





In the latest Maybank Equity Research dated 23 Oct 2009 has upgraded KNM group from SELL to BUY from previous target price RM0.69 to RM1.02.

Reasons are: (source from Maybank Equity Research)
1. Replenishment risk abating.
KNM's oustanding order book has stabilised at RM2.7b as at Sep 09. Also new job flows have started to pick up.

2. Job enquiries also on the rise.
To-date, 50% of KNM’s RM14b in tenders have been activated versus 10-15% 6 months ago.With job enquiries growing, we expect higher contract flows in 2010. New order wins will come from Malaysia and overseas (i.e. Middle East, Australia, PNG). We think KNM stands a strong chance of winning another RM400-500m contract from Verwater alone for Phase 2 of the storage terminal and marine facilities project in Yan, Kedah.
3. Exiting Chad to be positive.
Elsewhere, KNM’s intended venture into Chad is likely to be off unless it secures bank financing for the Sedigi project. The market would react positively should KNM drop its interest in Chad as a turnkey contractor or just surface as a sub-contractor for this project considering the security, execution and financial risks involved.
4. Expect earlier recovery, by 2010.
Forecast for 2010-11 will raise by 16% and 28% respectively as we expect full order book revival by 2H10. This suggests earnings growth revival from 2010, ahead of our initial expectations.


Tips:
Top 10 high volume stock with high fluctuation and speculation. This counter will be able give you an excitement everyday like riding a roller coaster. The current KNM's price is RM0.85 and if the TP is being realized then its going to be 23% profit. The lowest it can be speculated maybe at RM0.70, a very strong support level. So again....which way are you speculating? I voted up! I bought it in when it down to the support level and even now I still believe KNM still strong fundamentally with its businesses and growth.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Want to Know How Much A Company Made? Look at EPS!

Earning per Share(EPS) is to determine how much money the company makes.

It measures the shareholder returns for every shares invested. This is the most basic indicator because no matter how good you think a corporation is or how much you love its CEO, if the company is not earning money, eventually its stock price will fall.

EPS = Net Profit - Preference Dividens / No. of Ordinary Shares

Exp: Company A has $100,000 profits for the year with 1 million of outstanding shares. The EPS would be $0.10 (100,000/1,000,000).

TIPS:
If a company is earning more money, it obviously should be rewarded with a higher stock price or higher dividend payout (depending on its policies). That's why it's important to look at the history and forecast of company's EPS. Companies that grow (EPS) by more than 15% is the picked.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Tracking stocks with your HP

Ticker Tape is my favourite window mobile (WM) software. An application allows you to watch the stock market and updated the quotes in real time. More importantly, it is free.

The data are retrived from Yahoo Finance and it's allows you to track the stock prices anytime you want with the 3G or wifi connection. Besides, the history can be retrived up to 5 years as you can see in the pic.

How to install?
For this program, it's
requires .Net CF 3.5 to be in your WM phone. Then you can download the freeware from
http://www.freewarepocketpc.net/get-tickertape.html.

How to key in my favourite stock into the portfolio?
The stock code has to follow Yahoo Finance format which you can check online.
For example:
^KLSE = FTSE Bursa Malaysia
7164.KL =KNM Group Bhd
5108.KL = ICAP
5098.KL = Masteel

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Car Insurance - NCD Calculation

No Claim Discount (NCD) is a discount given to the policyholders upon renewal of their motor insurance if no claim is made from the policy for 12 months. The discount given is based on a fixed rate provided by Persatuan Insurans Am Malaysia (PIAM) Motor Tariff.

Period of Insurance - NCD
After 1st year = 0%
After 2nd year = 25%
After 3rd year = 30%
After 4th year = 38.33%
After 5th year = 45%
5th year onwards = 55%

Tips:
* NCD is transferable to your new car or even you change the insurance company. The tactic is that you can buy a cheaper car and pay lower insurance premium for 5 years. When you have reached the maximum NCD (55%), then you will be able to save a lot for your luxury dream car.

Link for Private Vehicle Insurance Premium Calculator
http://malaysia.kurnia.com/Insurance/Calculators/Car-Insurance/Default.aspx

What PE ratio to BUY?

Many investors in the stock market like to talk about PE ratio, what is it exactly?

PE ratio = Price Earning Ratio
PE ratio = Share price / EPS (EPS=Earning Per Share)

This is one of the common tools many people use it to get a quick indication of whether the share price is reasonable given the company's earnings. Meaning to determine whether a stock is fairly valued.

What PE ratio to BUY?
There is no fix answer for this. It will be meaningful if you compare the PE ratios within the same industry and overall market to gauge if the stock is overpriced.

Misconception
Low PE = Cheap & you should buy the stock.
High PE = Expensive & you should avoid the stock.
This is not true. Sometimes a high PE ratio does not mean the stock is expensive because the stock may have high growth prospects in its future earnings. Growth investor don't mind buying high PE stock because they expect the companies's earning to improve in the future.

Conclusion
Generally I will buy only companies with trailing PEs of 10 or less. As what Warren Buffett is doing. On top of that, Lower PE means a shorter time period to recoup your investment and it's also more resilient to market crashes.

How to Calculate Commission & Brokerage Fees

Do you know how much you pay everytime you buy a share from stock market?
There are 3 components:
1. Brokerage fees
2. Clearing Fees
3. Stamp Duty

Brokerage Fees
Retail trades valued above RM100,00 = 0.3% of contract value
Retail trades valued below RM100,00 = 0.6% of contract value
Online retail trades (online trades) = Up to 30% discount of min rate
Same day buy and sell trades = 0.15 of contract value
Minimum charge of RM40 per counter.

* I'm using Maybank Online Trading which charges 0.49% with RM12.00 minimum charge.
To avoid to loss out for the minimum charge, it's recommended to make each transaction minimally at RM2500.
X = (100/0.49)x12
= 2449

Clearing fee
Computed at 0.03% of the contract value. No Minimum fee here.

Stamp Duty
Calculated based on every RM1000 range, with maximum of RM200.
Contract Value - Stamp Duty
RM0-RM1000 = RM 1
RM1001 - RM2000 = RM 2
RM2001 - RM3000 = RM 3
RM100001 - RM200000 & above = RM 200

Example:
If you buy 50 lots (5000 units) shares of KNM at 0.70, how much do you have to pay in total?

Answer:
Total Commission & Fees
= Brokerage fee + Clearing fee + Stamp duty
= (RM0.70 x 5000 x 0.49%) + (RM0.70 x 5000 x 0.03%) + RM4
= RM17.15 + RM1.05 + RM4
=Rm 22.20
So, the total purchase price = RM3500 + RM22.20
= RM 3522.20

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

The Rule of 72

Everyone should know this basic investment rule. No excuse for saying that my school teacher never taught me this.
Rule of 72 is to help you estimates the amount of time to double your money.

72 / Interest rate = Years to double the money

For instances:
1. If your have $10K in wws2020/unit trust which give you return at 10% every year. 72/10=7.2 which means your money will double to become $20K in 7.2 years.

2. If inflation rates reported at 3% averagely. 72/3=24 which means your money will lose half of its value in approx. 24 years. If you are planning to retire with $1mil, you need to take the inflation into the calculation because 1mil today = 500K 24 years later. Now adjust your target to $2mil if you want to have $1mil worth Quality of Life (QoL) in 24 years later.

MASTEEL 5098 UP

Masteel, one of my highly invested counter due to its strong fundamental.
Current Price: 0.945
Upd: As I writing this its standing at 1.00 (changed +5.82%)
Net Assets Per Share: 2.21
EPS: 48.17 Sen
P/E Ratio: 2.46
DY: 0.03
my TP: 1.50
Steel is just like O&G the demand will definitely increase together with the market recovery.

Other Steel counter
Kinsteel: BUY CP:0.96 TP:1.30 (Source: Maybank research)
Cscstel: BUY1.03 CP:1.23 TP:1.4-1.80 (Source:The Edge & many other bloggers)

History moment

This is the history moment 21 Oct 2009 2:31am when this blog is created. I will record down all my research and insights about personal financial management and stock investments into this blog from now on. So at least I have a place to review my research conclusion later. It's here.